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What happens to $SOLO's creator fees, the odds of it ever mattering, and the rules if it does.

What it is

$SOLO is a pump.fun coin. Its creator fees pay for one thing: renting SHA-256 hashrate and pointing it at solo.ckpool.org, a public solo-mining pool, with our own Bitcoin address as the username.

On a solo pool your hashes are not pooled with anyone else's. If one of our rented machines finds a valid block, the block reward (3.125 BTC plus that block's transaction fees, less ckpool's 2%) is paid to our address in the block's coinbase transaction, where anyone can see it. If no machine finds a block, nothing is paid.

This is a long shot. The most likely outcome is that no block is ever found.

Where the fees go

  1. Trade. Every buy and sell pays pump.fun's creator fee. The coin's on-chain creator is a dedicated ops wallet, so the fees collect there.
  2. Claim. When enough has built up to pay for a useful rental, we collect it with a normal Solana transaction. The amount recorded is what left pump.fun's creator vaults in that transaction.
  3. Swap. SOL is swapped to native BTC through Chainflip, a cross-chain swap that needs no account. The rate, fees and time depend on the amount and the market at that minute; each quote is saved with its amount and time.
  4. Rent. We buy SHA-256 hashrate on Braiins Hashpower (a spot market billed on delivered hashrate, up to the bid's budget) or MiningRigRentals (single rigs, billed on advertised hashrate plus a 3% renter fee), usually 1 PH/s for 24 hours. It points at ckpool's rental port, stratum.ckpool.org:4334.
  5. Mine. ckpool's public page for our address shows live hashrate, shares and best share. The site reads it every minute and says so when it can't.

Rentals run only while claimed fees cover them. If trading slows, rentals get smaller or stop, and the site shows that nothing is mining. 0.05 SOL stays in the ops wallet for transaction fees. Fees are spent only on hashrate, the swaps and the transactions above.

Each receipt is marked verified (re-read from the chain or the marketplace API) or operator-submitted (entered by us and not independently checked). Only verified receipts count toward the totals.

The odds

Bitcoin adjusts its difficulty so the whole network finds a block about every ten minutes. Each hash is an independent draw with a 1 in difficulty × 2³² chance of being a block.

P(at least one block in t seconds) = 1 − e^(−H · t / (D · 2³²))

H is hashrate in hashes per second, D is the difficulty. The average wait is D · 2³² / H seconds. An average is not a deadline: even after waiting that long, the chance of at least one block is only 63%.

Hashrate, uninterruptedChance in 24 hAverage waitChance of at least one block in 365 daysRental cost per day
1 PH/s1 in 6,59818.1 years5.4%~$55
5 PH/s1 in 1,3203.6 years24.2%~$273
10 PH/s1 in 6601.8 years42.5%~$546
50 PH/s1 in 132132 days93.7%~$2,730

Dated 2026-10-08: difficulty 132.7 T (about 950 EH/s implied), MiningRigRentals suggested price 0.000639 BTC per PH-day plus its 3% renter fee, BTC ≈ $82,958. Braiins Hashpower traded at 0.00049–0.00055 BTC per PH-day that morning. Odds assume uninterrupted hashrate and unchanged difficulty.

At those prices one PH-day costs $40–55 and is expected to earn about $38.70 after ckpool's fee. Renting hashrate loses money on average; the only reason to do it is the small chance of a block.

What the live numbers mean

  • Chance of a block in 24 h if this rate continues: the latest 5-minute hashrate, extrapolated over a day. If the rental ends sooner, the real chance is lower.
  • Chance the last 24 h of hashing had: from ckpool's 1-day average hashrate for our address. This is the chance that was actually bought.
  • Closest we've been: our best share divided by the network difficulty. "1/3,400" means our luckiest hash so far would have needed to be 3,400 times harder. Every hash is a fresh draw: a close share is not progress. The pool-wide figure resets whenever solo.ckpool finds a block or is reset, so it is labelled "since its last reset", not "today".

It has happened

Rented hashrate has found blocks on public solo pools: block 938,092 (February 2026, about 1 PH/s rented on Braiins), block 899,826 (June 2025, solo.ckpool) and block 960,804 (August 2026, solo.ckpool). Those were long shots that landed; most attempts never do.

If a block is found

  1. Verify. We check the block on public explorers: it is in the main chain, it is the block at its height, and its coinbase pays our address. We post the block hash.
  2. Snapshot. Holders are counted by the snapshot rule below. The file and its checksum are published next to the block hash.
  3. Wait for maturity. Bitcoin lets a coinbase be spent after 100 confirmations, about 17 hours. If the block is orphaned before then, there is no reward and no payout.
  4. Swap and settle. The BTC is swapped to SOL. Every swap is recorded with its Bitcoin and Solana transactions, and the total SOL received is split by a fixed rule: 50% to holders, 50% to buyback and burn. Solana network fees come from the ops wallet's reserve, not from either half.
  5. Holders. The holder half is sent pro rata in SOL to each wallet in the snapshot, in batches of 18 transfers. Each batch is recorded once; a batch that has been paid is never sent again.
  6. Buyback and burn. The other half buys $SOLO on the market (bonding curve or PumpSwap). The quote's minimum output is burned in the same transaction, and whatever it bought above that minimum is burned in a second transaction right after. Both are public.

Who counts as a holder

  • Wallets holding at least 100,000 $SOLO at the snapshot slot. Smaller balances are left out so payouts stay above network fees.

At 3.125 BTC plus about 0.018 BTC of fees (an illustrative figure from 2026-10-08), a block is worth roughly $260,700 at today's BTC price, before ckpool's 2% and swap costs.

The snapshot rule

Holders are read from Solana at the first finalized slot after the found block's 6th Bitcoin confirmation (about an hour after the block). The rule is fixed before mining starts so that nobody, including us, chooses the moment.

Because a found block is public on Bitcoin straight away, anyone can buy $SOLO in that hour and be counted. We prefer a rule anyone can predict to one we control.

The snapshot file records the slot it was read at, the Bitcoin block it is for, the 6th-confirmation block and the minimum. It is taken once and never retaken. If it was taken more than 30 minutes after the 6th confirmation, the file says so.

Check it yourself

  • Pool page for our address: published with the payout address at launch. Live hashrate, workers, shares and best share, served by ckpool, not by us.
  • Our payout address: published at launch. Any block reward lands here first.
  • Rentals: each rental's marketplace, order id, size and length are on the home page.
  • Raw data: ledger.json (every receipt) and /api/status (the live numbers).

Risks

  • We will most likely never find a block. At the sizes creator fees can pay for, the chance over a year is a few percent to tens of percent, and only if trading keeps paying for rentals. Assume nothing happens.
  • $SOLO can go to zero. Nothing here is an investment or a promise of returns. The only commitment is how a found block's proceeds are split. Check what buying and holding a token means where you live.
  • You trust us with the payout. The BTC lands at an address we control and the payouts are sent by us. Every step is public, but it is not a smart contract.
  • Rentals can underdeliver. A rented rig can go offline or run below its advertised speed. MiningRigRentals bills advertised hashrate; Braiins bills what it delivers to the pool, including some deliveries the pool rejects. The pool page shows what actually arrived.
  • Providers can stop us. Braiins Hashpower can ask for identity verification and can suspend or freeze accounts under its terms. MiningRigRentals' website terms describe personal, non-commercial use unless agreed in writing, so we use Braiins first and confirm with MiningRigRentals before relying on it. A suspension would stop the rentals.
  • Third parties fail. The pool, the marketplaces, the swap service and the explorers can go down or change their terms. When a live source is down, the site says "Data unavailable" rather than showing a zero.
  • Pool fee and orphans. solo.ckpool keeps 2% of a found block. A block that is orphaned before 100 confirmations pays nothing.

Questions

Why not just buy bitcoin with the fees?

That would be certain and small. This spends the fees on a small chance at a whole block, and anyone can watch it happen.

Why a solo pool and not a normal one?

A normal pool pays a small, steady amount and the expected value is the same. A solo pool pays nothing unless our machines find a block themselves. That is the point of the project, and it is why the most likely outcome is nothing.

How often do you rent?

Whenever claimed fees cover a useful rental, usually 1 PH/s for 24 hours. The home page shows whether a rental is running and when it ends.

Who holds the keys?

The team holds the ops wallet and the Bitcoin address. Every spend is a public transaction.